2014: Week 9 Picks


Evo analysts are a total 40-17-1 for the season which is a better percentage than most of the so called 'experts' out there.  In fact if you look at the NFL pick watch website 71% accuracy is higher than every analyst on there.    That is a scary statistic.

This week the games look tough to pick but we will try and keep the momentum going.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (Thursday 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network)
The Saints haven't won on the road all year and both teams are 3-4 with the Panthers having a tie in their column which means the winner takes sole possession of first place at just 4-4.   I'm thinking on one hand the Saints have to win a game on the road right?  On the other the Panthers offense has stunk for the most part this year but now they play a Saints defense who is atrocious on the road.   A lot of analysts are picking the Saints based on how the teams played last week, but we all know that means nothing in the NFL.  I like Cam Newton to have a nice game for a change because he is due.  This one is a flip of the coin as evo analysts are split down the middle, so I just flipped a coin and the Saints win 27-24.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS).
This is obviously the big game of the week and it will be a late game which helps the Broncos adjust to flying east.   It will be a chilly November day in MA but weather shouldn't be a factor to alter anything.  The Patriots are unbeatable at home and off the top of my head I can remember a fluky game where they lost to Arizona at home as being the last time they lost which was 2 years ago.  The odds increase if they are ahead at halftime, so watch for that in this game.  One more 'odd' thing that the Patriots are not used to is that they will be underdogs at home as the Broncos are slight favorites.  In any event this game is going to be a tossup to pick.  The Broncos are the better team and have been smashing teams lately but the Patriots just do not lose at home.  I think the difference is the Pats Oline fails them and they allow a bad sack or a QB pressure combined with Manning eating alive the Pats depleted defensive line and LB's.  DEN 35-31

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday 1 p.m. ET, FOX).
This will be the early hyped up game in the NFC for FOX between 2 overachieving teams.  Dallas as of now are 4 point favorites however as of right now we are not for certain that Romo will play and even if he plays if he will be healthy enough to play well.  The scary thing is one of these teams will have 7 wins after Sunday and we are still early in the season, plus if it comes down to tiebreakers this game will prove to be crucial with playoff seeding.  The network definately hopes Romo plays, but I feel like the Cowboys are due for a mini skid and the Cards will out coach them and win this game.  AZ 31-28  UPSET of the week.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC).
Yet another huge game which like the 2 games we mentioned already will be overhyped and shown to a large audience.  The winner picks up a division win in a very tight NFC North and with Cincy and Cleveland both playing weak opponents the loser could find themselves in last place in big trouble early on.  The Ravens are a much better home team we know that, and the Steelers offense looked unstoppable last week against the Colts as they racked up 50 points and Big Ben smashed Steelers passing records while the Ravens lost a heartbreaker at Cincy.  It is tempting to go with the trend here and pick the Steelers but keep in mind the bookies have this game as a PK so they think the Ravens are the better team.   I think picking against the trend makes sense here, just the way the NFL works. BAL 24-20.

Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants (Monday 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Yet another hyped up game for sure on MNF as both teams are licking their wounds.  The Giants had a bye week and are the prime example of inconsistency.  The Colts looked red hot and then ran into a buzz saw against the Steelers.  I'm thinking this will be a back and forth game and Luck pulls it out in a close game.  IND 27-24

Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans  (Sunday 1 p.m. ET, FOX).
I just don't think the Texans have the firepower to outscore the Eagles.  The aggressive defense of the Texans will be taken advantage of with a lot of misdirection plays and they will be able to neutralize their excellent Dline.  There have been rumblings of making a QB change for the Texans which is unfair, with that negativity I like the Eagles to hold 28-17

Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks  (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS).
Oakland will win a game eventually (I think) but it won't be this weekend.  Their problem is their offense has 1 good player, not great, James Jones.  Otherwise they have no talent.  And if you can't score you can't win.  Seattle will have a field day at home.  SEA 30-10 LOCK OF THE WEEK

San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins (Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS).
Rivers was white hot earlier in the year but has cooled off as he has played tougher defenses, their lack of running game doesn't help either and it looks like Matthews will not play again so they will have to throw more than they want vs. a defense that is one of the best at pass defense.  Miami has the #1 defense if you compile turnovers, points, and yardage allowed and they will slow a one dimensional SD team which has to fly east 3 time zones for an early game.  The Dolphins match up well vs. the Chargers and last year Miami defeated them by 4 points.  I see a similar game, the wild card is Tannehill.  When Miami opens up the offense and he runs more they are hard to stop, when they get conservative they struggle.  MIA 27-23

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS).
Geno Smith appears to be finished at QB, maybe forever.  Vick will start but he has a history of turning it over and getting hurt so we might still see Geno play.  The Chiefs defense at home is a nightmare because they can put pressure and blitz with their great pass rushers, it will be difficult for the Jets to do anything on offense so they will need to play great defense and special teams to pull of the upset here.  Alex Smith just needs to protect the football which I think he will.  The Jets D has only forced 3 turnovers this year.  KC 33-13

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS).
CIN 27-10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns (Sunday 1 p.m. ET, FOX
CLE 16-10
Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday 1 p.m. ET, FOX).
MIN 23-17
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX).
SF 30-23


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