I was 11-4 last week which means the Russian mafia will be calling me shortly offering me a job. I kid. Overall, I am now 20-8. On my locks/upset picks I am a modest 3-1. This week will be tricky as there are a lot of good matchups, I smell some upsets and I also smell a lot of surprising results, so I will do my best to offer up my surprise picks.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS).
These thursday night games are brutal for the road teams, since this game will be in Houston this gives them an intangible advantage immediately; and since both teams are almost evenly matched, based on that I am going to pick the Texans. HOU 27-21
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX).
The Cowboys will not be able to audible out of running plays when the Seahawks show 8 man fronts to stop their potent run game on the road. This will help slow down the Cowboys running game and allow the Seahawks to dominate the line of scrimmage. SEA 31-17 LOCK OF THE WEEK
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bills match up very well with the Pats, in fact their defense is specifically built to stop the Patriots horizontal offense, unless Brady shows the ability to connect with his wideouts they will struggle to move the ball against these types of defenses. I expect a tough day for the Pats offense and a low scoring game with the Bills able to run the ball well and pulling off a close win at home. Oddsmakers seem to agree with me with the O/U the lowest of any game this weekend. BUF 16-13
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC)
This game will be overhyped since it will be two big market teams playing on primetime and for good reason. This one is hard to predict because it could come down to who has the ball last. I will give the small nod to the Eagles at home. PHI 38-34
Denver Broncos at New York Jets (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS).
Its fun watching dysfuntional offenses like the Jets, just like how people enjoy watching car crashes in NASCAR. Geno Smith mysteriously played better late last year, but I get the feeling the Jets players know that Rex is on his way out finally, so as tempting as it is to go with the shocker here I think I will stick with Manning and the Broncos. DEN 27-10
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX).
Here is a juicy game to pick. The Bears drive their fans crazy with their up and down play and the Falcons are at home, so obviously the Falcons are the safe pick right? Wrong. The Bears have played better on the road this year and should have won last week had they not forgot to show up for the 2nd half. I think in this one they get a monster game from Cutler and win. CHI 28-24
Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS).
When you first look at this game you would think the Ravens would be favored by atleast 6 points, or how about 5 points? Nope, they are only FG favorites; reason is the Ravens aren't that good on the road and the Bucs aren't as bad as their record shows. I said the Bucs would be spoilers this year for a lot of teams and this is the second one right here. TB 24-20
Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
I expect a lot of analysts to foolishly pick the Panthers here because of the way both teams played last week. The one intangible though that they don't get is that the Bengals are at home and they don't lose at home. Expect a total change in the way both teams play this week. CIN 27-17
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX)
The Dolphins return atleast a half dozen starters off injuries and suspensions. The Packers are #25 at stopping the run, and Miami is #5 at rushing. Plus it will be a hot and humid 88 degrees and an early 1pm game. Not a good recipe for the Packers. Only question is can the Dolphins defense keep Rodgers under control, I expect him to hit on 1 big play here but Miami's D will do the job at home. MIA 24-17
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS)
The Jags came close to winning last week, and the Titans blew a monster 25 point lead at home. This is the game where the Jags win their first game, as well as my UPSET OF THE WEEK pick. JAC 21-20
rest of the games
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS).
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS)
Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX).
San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).